Swarms in the Third Offset

Advances in swarm technology is part of the Department of Defense’s Third Offset Strategy which is a plan for overcoming reduced military force structure and declining technological superiority against potential U.S. adversaries. The components of the Third Offset represent the enabling capabilities of swarm behavior which could be adopted in the future force. Therefore, this paper investigates whether the U.S. military should focus greater research and development efforts on swarm-capable systems that are low-cost, numerous, unmanned, and fast. The first area of discussion includes swarm initiatives that could allow the military to transition away from expensive and heavy weapons platforms. Second, self-driving vehicles, automated logistics, and aerial drones in industry could translate to autonomous supply trains, reduced soldier error, and targeting missions in the military. Third, adversaries are pursuing swarm capabilities. While swarms show great promise, there are some major legal and ethical obstacles to swarm-capable systems. Lastly, recommendations are offered as a way ahead for swarm initiatives. Swarms in the Third Offset The fiercest serpent may be overcome by a swarm of ants. —Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto During the 2017 Super Bowl 51 half-time performance, Intel demonstrated the control of 300 drones and broke the world record a few months earlier with 500 drones controlled by a single operator. In October of 2016, the U.S. Military conducted the largest deployment ever of micro-swarms. Dubbed the Perdix micro drone, these small, inexpensive, battery-powered, propeller-driven air vehicles were launched by three F/A18 Super Hornets. Just over a year prior in 2015, the Advanced Robotic Systems Engineering Laboratory at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, held the record with 50 simultaneous airborne unmanned aerial vehicles controlled by a single operator. This author predicts that 500 drones will quickly increase to 1,000 and 10,000 agents in just a few a year’s time while being scalable, adaptable, distributed, and collective. 5 Advances in swarm technology is part of the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Third Offset Strategy which is a plan for overcoming (“offsetting”) reduced military force structure and declining technological superiority against potential U.S. adversaries. 6 Key components of this strategy include dominance in artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, unmanned systems, and increased autonomy. Collectively, the components of the Third Offset represent the enabling capabilities of swarm behavior which could be wholly adopted in the future force. Therefore, should the DoD focus research and development efforts on swarm-capable ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) and weapons systems that are lowcost, numerous, unmanned, and fast? This paper will provide an overview of swarms and explore three major areas to address this primary question. While the promise of 2 swarm behavior appears great, there are some major obstacles to swarm-capable systems which will be presented. Lastly, recommendations will be offered as a way ahead for DoD swarm initiatives. Swarms can offer multiple operational advantages in terms of speed, intelligence gathering, coordinated effects (kinetic and non-kinetic), and efforts. Humans typically cannot control more than four to five discrete elements at a time. Swarm-based systems allow for collective and distributed control of hundreds and thousands of agents where the operator is executing mission objectives and not focused on individual agent control. Humans will maintain overall operational control but low-level decisions from individual agents within the swarm could be made autonomously to fulfill mission objectives within pre-defined rules of engagement. The first area of discussion includes swarm initiatives that could allow the DoD to transition away from expensive, heavy, and human-centric weapons platforms such as legacy tanks, manned fighters, and submarines. These systems are difficult to deploy, require large amounts of maintenance and fuel, and may be out-matched in a many operator to one vehicle paradigm. Second, the advent of self-driving vehicles, automated logistics, and aerial drones in the commercial sector could translate to autonomous supply trains, reduced soldier fatigue and error, and targeting missions in the military. Academia partnered with private industry could propel these innovations since the technology has dual-use capabilities in transportation, search and rescue, agricultural monitoring, and homeland security. The open source community has enabled these advances but has also allowed for their proliferation and use among enemy forces and terrorist organizations.